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Trade Your Predictions on Political, Economic, and Climate Events

Take a position on key elections, indicators, and trading events with IBKR ForecastTrader. Users can trade yes-or-no predictions in different categories, including politics,1 economics, finance and climate indicators. Trading is available around the clock, seven days a week.2

You will also earn 3.14% APY on your investment with an interest-like incentive coupon. Plus, you will receive USD 3.00 you can use to trade Forecast Contracts.

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February Producer Price Index En Español - March 18 at 8:15 am ET:
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February Jobs Report + March Consumer Confidence - March 31 at 9:50 am ET:
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Forecast Contracts on US elections are only available to eligible US residents.

The displayed future outcome probabilities and prices are hypothetical and only intended as an example. They do not reflect current market sentiment, expected outcomes, or the opinions of IBKR.

Displayed outcomes and prices are based on real-time market sentiment from ForecastEx LLC, an affiliate of IB LLC. For more information see ibkr.com/realfex

Will the United States economy enter a recession by the end of this quarter?

Open Interest: 128,000
YES 3%
NO 97%

Will the year-over-year change in US Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index exceed 2.5% this month?

Open Interest: 240
YES 47%
NO 53%

Will the US Fed Funds Target Rate be set above 3.875% at the upcoming FOMC meeting?

Open Interest: 107,000
YES 97%
NO 3%

Will this year be the warmest year on record?

Open Interest: 1,360
YES 22%
NO 78%

Trade Forecast Contracts from ForecastEx

Gain Exposure
While Limiting Risk

Forecast Contracts let you invest in political, economic, finance and climate trend predictions while limiting your risk. The maximum loss per contract is limited to the amount you initially paid.

For each Forecast Contract you hold that expires “in the money” regarding the underlying settlement value, you receive a fixed payout of USD 1.00. Your max profit per contract is USD 1.00 minus the contract cost, fees and commissions. Forecast Contracts are priced between USD 0.02 to USD 0.99 per contract and quoted in USD 0.01 increments.

You can close open positions by buying the opposite side. For example: if you own a YES contract, you can close the position by buying a NO contract on the same underlying question.

Zero Commissions on Forecast Contracts

Forecast Contracts are offered at zero-commission at Interactive Brokers.

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Forecast Contracts Offer Payments Equivalent to Interest in the Form of an Incentive Coupon – Current Rate Is 3.14% APY

Forecast Contracts pay an interest-like incentive coupon based on the closing market value of the positions. The incentive coupon accrues daily and is paid monthly. Incentive coupons are currently paid at a rate of 3.14% APY.

Example: If you purchase a position at USD 0.50 and the market closes at USD 0.50, the daily incentive coupon will be based on USD 0.50. If, on the following day, the market for the same contract closes at USD 0.70, the daily incentive coupon will be based on USD 0.70.

Get $3 to trade Forecast Contracts

When your account receives permissions for Forecast Contracts, you'll receive $3.00 you can use to try them out.

Washington Capitol

Gain Exposure
While Limiting Risk

CME Group Prediction Markets provide exposure to key futures markets while limiting your risk because the most you can lose on each contract is the price you pay for the contract.

For each contract you hold that expires "in the money", you receive a fixed payout of USD 1.00. Your max profit per contract is USD 1.00 minus the contract cost, fees and commissions. Prediction markets are priced between USD 0.01 to USD 0.99 per contract and quoted in USD 0.01 increments.

Interactive Brokers offers a low, transparent commission of just USD 0.01 per contract.

View Commissions

Search results for Fed Funds Target Forecast contract. FF FORECASTX: US FED FUNDS TARGET RATE, Event Contract

Access Forecast and Prediction Markets 24/7 2 Across Our Professional Platforms

Use our desktop, mobile and online trading platforms to monitor your existing positions or search for new Forecast Contracts.

Enter search terms such as 'US Presidential Election,' 'US Real GDP,' or 'Fed Funds Target' to return relevant contracts, and then select the forecast contract you wish to trade.

Toggling between trading platforms is seamless, and you do not need to log in or out as you move between them.

For detailed info on accessing Forecast Contracts on TWS, IBKR Mobile and Client Portal, see below under Already an Interactive Brokers Client.

Frequently Asked Questions

US election prediction markets are markets where participants trade Yes/No contracts tied to US election outcomes, and prices update as information changes. On ForecastTrader, these are ForecastEx Forecast Contracts presented as clear, outcome-based questions with fixed settlement values.

No — Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents, and additional eligibility requirements may apply.

Election prediction markets work by letting you take a position on a specific yes-or-no election question (for example, who wins, which party controls a chamber, or whether a candidate wins a state — depending on listings). If the outcome resolves in your favor, the contract settles at a fixed value (commonly $1) and otherwise settles at $0, subject to the contract's terms.

In Forecast-style election markets, the "odds" people refer to are typically the current contract price, and that price is commonly interpreted as an implied probability signal. Because prices update continuously, you can track live election probabilities and see how market expectations shift in real time.

An election probability tracker is a way of viewing how market pricing changes over time for a given election question — effectively a real-time election prediction signal derived from trading activity. ForecastTrader surfaces these probabilities through Forecast Contract prices and percentage-style displays based on market sentiment

"Real-time election predictions" usually means continuously updating market-based probabilities that react quickly to new information (news, debates, polling releases, court decisions, etc.). Unlike a single poll, market prices can change any time participants re-price the likelihood of an outcome.

No — polls measure stated voter preference at the time of a survey, while prediction markets reflect what participants are willing to pay for a yes/no outcome at that moment. Many traders also incorporate polls, fundamentals, and news into their decisions, so market prices can move in response to polling changes.

They're different tools: polls are snapshots of opinion; markets are dynamic probability signals that can incorporate many information sources. Market quality depends on participation, liquidity, and contract design — so the best approach is often to use both as complementary inputs.

They can be — research finds prediction markets are often fairly accurate and can outperform common benchmarks in many contexts, though they aren't perfect and outcomes can still surprise. Accuracy is influenced by liquidity, clarity of settlement rules, and how much new information arrives late in the cycle.

Yes — a high implied probability is not a guarantee; it reflects the market's current consensus given available information and trading behavior. Unexpected events (late-breaking news, turnout shifts, legal rulings) can still change outcomes

ForecastEx Forecast Contracts are exchange-listed contracts that let you trade on yes-or-no event questions across politics (including US elections where eligible), economics, finance, and climate indicators. They typically settle at $0 or $1 based on the outcome.

Forecast Contracts are priced in dollars and quoted in small increments, with prices generally between about $0.02 and $0.99 depending on the market's perceived likelihood. A higher "Yes" price typically indicates the market views the event as more likely, based on real-time trading.

Your maximum loss is generally limited to the amount you paid for the contract, because these contracts are designed with fixed settlement outcomes (subject to fees and applicable rules). ForecastEx also describes these contracts as fully collateralized structures.

The maximum profit per contract is generally the settlement value (typically $1) minus your purchase price (and any applicable costs).

At settlement, the contract resolves according to the event question and the exchange's rules, paying out the fixed settlement value to the correct side. This is why reading the event question (and what source determines the outcome) matters.

ForecastEx disclosures describe exiting via offsetting positions (holding both "Yes" and "No" sides of the same event question), with settlement handled per exchange rules. In practice, the ability to exit efficiently depends on market liquidity and the available prices at that time.

ForecastTrader states trading is available around the clock, seven days a week, though the system may have periodic maintenance windows.

The home page states Forecast Contracts are offered at zero-commission at Interactive Brokers. (As with any market, bid/ask spreads and market liquidity can still affect your execution price.)

ForecastTrader states Forecast Contracts pay an interest-like incentive coupon that accrues daily and is paid monthly, and shows a current rate of 3.14% APY. The coupon is based on the closing market value of positions, per the platform description.

ForecastTrader describes that customers may need the appropriate trading permissions and that ForecastTrader is accessible through IBKR platforms and web experience. Eligibility and permissions can vary by customer type and jurisdiction.

Economic prediction markets are forecast markets where participants trade yes/no contracts on measurable economic outcomes like inflation thresholds, rate decisions, or recession timing (depending on listings). ForecastTrader examples include questions tied to CPI and the Fed Funds Target Rate.

ForecastTrader and ForecastEx examples include inflation indicators, interest-rate targets, and growth-related metrics (depending on what's listed). Each contract is tied to a clear event question and a defined resolution process.

Markets estimate probability through trading: prices move as participants incorporate new data releases, forecasts, and macro news into what they're willing to pay. ForecastTrader also highlights that the "Yes" price is based on how likely an event is to happen.

Climate prediction markets are forecast markets where participants trade on measurable climate indicators (for example, temperature or atmospheric CO₂ thresholds), depending on listings. ForecastTrader includes climate indicators like temperatures and atmospheric CO₂ as examples.

People may use climate forecast markets to track the market's collective expectation about measurable outcomes over a defined timeframe. As always, the contract's definition and settlement source determine what "counts" as the outcome.

Yes — these are derivatives and you can lose the full amount paid for a position if the outcome resolves against you. ForecastTrader also states these products are not suitable for all investors and points to risk disclosures

Check the event question, the deadline, and the settlement/resolution source so you understand exactly what determines the outcome. This is especially important for closely related outcomes (e.g., popular vote vs. electoral outcomes) where definitions matter.

No — forecast contracts are event-based derivatives with fixed settlement outcomes tied to a question, not ownership in a company. They're designed to express a view on an event outcome with predetermined payoff structure.

Interested in Trading Forecast Contracts
at Interactive Brokers?

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Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR) is an automated global electronic broker that serves individual investors, hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, registered investment advisors and introducing brokers.

Our four-decade focus on technology and automation allows us to provide our clients with a uniquely sophisticated, low-cost global platform for managing investments.

Our clients enjoy low-cost access to stocks, options, futures, currencies, bonds and funds from a single unified platform.

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Log in Request Trading Permissions

Request trading permissions if you don't have Forecast/Event Contract trading permissions but would like to trade Forecast Contracts.

Trading permissions are usually approved immediately.

Trading on IBKR ForecastTrader

ForecastTrader is IBKR's prediction market trading experience, accessible through your existing IBKR login via TWS, IBKR Mobile, Client Portal, IBKR Desktop, IBKR GlobalTrader, API, or the ForecastTrader web interface.

How to Trade:

  1. Open ForecastTrader from any IBKR platform or directly via the ForecastTrader website.
  2. Search for Forecast Contracts (e.g. "Fed" for Fed Funds Rate, "Cons" for Consumer Price Index) or browse the topics presented on the screen.
  3. Click the event you want to trade.
  4. Click YES or NO to express your forecast and choose your quantity.

Trading Forecast Contracts on Other Trading Platforms

Forecast Contract positions are available for review from any of our trading platforms.

You can also seamlessly access IBKR ForecastTrader from our other trading platforms. Click a trading platform to learn how.

In the Mosaic Layout - Select the New Window menu icon and select IBKR ForecastTrader
In the Classic TWS Layout - Select the Trading Tools menu icon and select IBKR ForecastTrader

Alternatively, you may search for Forecast Contracts by entering a product description (e.g., "Consumer Price") into a Watchlist or the Help/Ticker Lookup field, selecting the Event Contract radio button to refine the results, and then choosing the appropriate contract.

Please note that TWS now supports the use of ScaleTrader, Accumulate/Distribute, and IBALGO+Accumulate/Distribute for Forecast Contracts.

Use the Search box at the top of any page to search for Forecast Contracts by entering a product description (e.g., "Consumer Price"). Click the Event tab and choose the appropriate contract.

Select the Trade button and select IBKR ForecastTrader.

Alternatively, select the Trade button followed by the search box at the top of the page. Enter a description for a product (e.g., "temperature") and choose the appropriate contract.

Select the Trade tab and select IBKR ForecastTrader.

Alternatively, enter a product description (e.g., "unemployment") in the Search field, select the Event menu option, and then choose the appropriate contract.

To navigate back to Client Portal, select Trade stocks, options, futures, and more at IBKR Client Portal button in the top left corner.

The Web API and TWS API now support the trading of Forecast Contracts.

Select the Forecasts tab and choose the appropriate contract.

Alternatively, select the Explore tab followed by the search box at the top of the page. Enter a description for a product (e.g., "temperature") and choose the appropriate contract.

  1. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.
  2. System may be unavailable each day due to maintenance. For more information, please view the system maintenance schedule.

Forecast Contracts are only available to eligible clients, 21 years and older, of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Canada Inc., Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, Interactive Brokers Ireland Limited and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.

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