Learning Center

What are Forecast and Event Contracts?

Forecast and Event Contracts let investors trade predictions on trends for specific yes-or-no questions.

Contracts can cover many topics including political,1 economic, financial or climate indicators.

Examples include: federal, state and municipal US elections, Consumer Price Index, Fed Funds Rate, temperatures, atmospheric CO2, energy, metals, and equity indexes.

No Icon Yes Icon How Event Trading Works, Stock Ticker Screen

How Do Forecast and Event Contracts Work?

For each contract you hold that expires "in the money", in reference to the settlement value,
you receive a fixed payout.

Equities Events

Pick Your Forecast or Prediction Market

Choose from ForecastEx Forecast Contracts on political, economic, financial or climate indicators, or CME Event Contracts on futures markets.

Equities Events

Trade Yes or No with ForecastTrader Event Contracts

Trade YES or NO positions of whether an event will happen based on your views, economic theories, or predictions. The "YES" price is based on how likely an event is to happen.

Equities Events

Generate income based on your insights

You can earn the difference between the purchase price and the closing price for each contract you own. In addition, Forecast Contracts pay an interest-like incentive coupon based on the closing market value of the positions that accrues daily and is paid monthly at a rate of 3.83% APY

Contract Specs ForecastEx CME

Markets

Political, Economic or Climate Indicators

Select Futures markets

Contract term

Weekly, Monthly, Quarterly, Yearly

Daily

Price quotation

USD

USD

Contract size

1 contract = $1.00

1 contract = $100.00

Minimum price increment

$0.01

$1.00

Final settlement

$0 or $1.00

$0 or $100.00

ForecastEx Forecast Contracts

Forecast Contracts let you trade your view on the outcomes of various economic and climate indicators.

Each contract pays USD 1.00 and your max profit per contract is USD 1.00 minus the contract cost. Forecast Contracts are quoted in USD 0.01 increment.

Additional information on Forecast Contracts
is available from ForecastEx

Visit ForecastEx

Example Forecast Contract Trade

“Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% this month”

1

Last month’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) was 3.8%

2

For the “Will the year-over-year change in the US Consumer Price Index exceed 3.8% this month” Forecast Contract: YES is trading at USD 0.52. NO is trading at USD 0.49.

3

This indicates the market is assigning a 52% probability the US CPI will be above 3.8% this month and an 49% probability the US CPI will be below 3.8% this month.

4

You believe the US CPI will be above 3.8% and decide to buy 20 YES Forecast Contracts at USD 0.52 per contract for a total cost of USD 10.40

5

The US CPI comes in at 3.9% so each of your YES contracts has a fixed payout of USD 1.00.

6

You receive USD 1.00 for each YES for a total of USD 20.00. Since you paid USD 10.40 for the 20 YES contracts and commissions are USD 0.00 your profit on this trade is USD 9.60.

ForecastTrader Educational Resources

Market Commentary and Analysis

IBKR Economic Landscape

Commentary, analysis, and insight on US economic indicators from Interactive Brokers’ senior economist Jose Torres.

Market Calendar

Economic Events Calendar

Trader’s Academy Courses

Learn About Key Economic Events

As a trader, you will come across many factors that you must consider before entering or exiting the markets. Some of the most important aspects to look for are economic events that can move the markets drastically one way or another.

Some of the most important aspects to look for are potentially volatile, market moving economic events.

These can be positive or negative financial market events.

Monetary Measures, Economic Output and Corporate Profits (US)

This course covers the central banking system, the government bond system, fiscal budgets, economic growth calculations, and corporate profitability's importance. Some of the indicators include the money supply, yield curve, gross domestic product, and corporate profits.

Course Lessons:

  1. Money Supply (M2)
  2. The Yield Curve
  3. Corporate Earnings
  4. Gross Domestic Product

Business and Consumer Activity and Confidence (US)

This course covers indicators that provide insight into economic activity and confidence like confidence, sales, incomes, production, and more.

Course Lessons:

  1. Purchasing Managers’ Index for Manufacturing
  2. Consumer Price Index
  3. Industrial Production
  4. Personal Income and Outlays
  5. Consumer Confidence
  6. Retail Sales

Employment and the Labor Market (US)

This course explores a variety of labor market indicators that shed light on the composition of human work like participation, unemployment, employment, and wages.

Course Lessons:

  1. Labor Force Participation
  2. Payroll Employment
  3. Unemployment Claims
  4. Unemployment Rate
  5. Average Hourly Workweek
  6. Average Hourly Earnings

Construction and Real Estate (US)

This course covers indicators that track the real estate market and its many different aspects such as mortgage rates, mortgage applications, spending, prices, shovels in the ground, permitting and more.

Course Lessons:

  1. Housing Permits
  2. Housing Starts
  3. Housing Completions
  4. Construction Spending
  5. Home Price Index
  6. Existing Home Sales
  7. Mortgage Applications
  8. Mortgage Delinquencies

Trader's Academy Quiz

Learn about Forecast Markets

CME Event Contracts

CME event contracts let you trade your view on whether the price of key futures markets will move up or down by the end of each day's trading session.

Each contract pays USD 100.00 and your max profit per contract is USD 100.00 minus the contract cost, fees and commissions. CME event contracts are quoted in USD 1.00 increments.

View all CME event contracts, and to trade simply choose YES or NO.

Additional information on CME Event Contracts
is available from the CME Group

Visit CME Group

Example Event Contract Trade

“Will Gold close above USD 2,035.00 today?”

1

Gold starts trading at
USD 2,035.00

2

For the “Will Gold close above USD 2,035.00 today?” Event Contract: YES is trading at USD 19. NO is trading at USD 84.

3

This indicates the market is assigning a 19% probability that Gold will close above USD 2,035.00 today and an 84% probability that Gold will close below USD 2,035.00 today.

4

You believe Gold will close above USD 2,035.00 and decide to buy 2 YES Event Contracts at USD 19 per contract.

5

Gold closes at USD 2,085.00 so each of your YES contracts has a fixed payout of USD 100.00.

6

You receive USD 100.00 for each YES for a total of USD 200.00. Since you paid USD 38.00 for the 2 YES and commissions are USD 0.20 (USD 0.10 per contract) your profit on this trade is USD 161.80.

ForecastTrader Educational Resources

Frequently Asked Questions


Interested in Trading Event Contracts
at Interactive Brokers?

New to Interactive Brokers? Open an Account.

Open Account

Interactive Brokers (Nasdaq: IBKR) is an automated global electronic broker that serves individual investors, hedge funds, proprietary trading groups, registered investment advisors and introducing brokers.

Our four-decade focus on technology and automation allows us to provide our clients with a uniquely sophisticated, low-cost global platform for managing investments.

Our clients enjoy low-cost access to stocks, options, futures, currencies, bonds and funds from a single unified platform.

Already an Interactive Brokers Client?

Log in Request Trading Permissions

Request trading permissions if you don't have Forecast/Event Contract trading permissions but would like to trade Forecast Contracts.

Trading permissions are usually approved immediately.

Trading on IBKR ForecastTrader

  • Log in to IBKR ForecastTrader
  • Select a Forecast Contract
  • Click on YES or NO to trade
  • To search for Forecast Contracts, select the Markets menu and enter a description of a product
    (e.g., "Fed" for Fed Fund Rate, "cons" for Consumer Price Index, etc.)

Trading Forecast Contracts on Other Trading Platforms

Forecast Contract positions are available for review from any of our trading platforms.

You can also seamlessly access IBKR ForecastTrader from our other trading platforms. Click a trading platform to learn how.

Select the Trading Tools or New Window menu items and select IBKR ForecastTrader.

To search Forecast Contracts, enter a description for product (e.g., "Consumer Price") into the Watch List field or Help/Ticker Lookup field, and then select the product and Event & Forecast Contract.

Please note that TWS now supports the use of ScaleTrader, Accumulate/Distribute, and IBALGO+Accumulate/Distribute for Forecast Contracts.

Select the Trade button , select Search, enter description for product (e.g., "temperature") and press Return > Event & Forecast Contracts. To navigate back to IBKR Mobile, select the User ("head/shoulders" icon ) > IBKR Mobile menu item.

Enter a product description (e.g., "unemployment") in the Search field and select the Product > Event & Forecast Contracts menu item. To navigate back to Client Portal, select the User ("head/shoulders" icon) > Client Portal menu item.

The TWS API now supports the trading of Forecast Contracts. Please view our documentation for more details.

  1. Forecast Contracts on US election results are only available to eligible US residents.

Forecast and Event Contracts are only available to eligible clients of Interactive Brokers LLC, Interactive Brokers Hong Kong Limited, and Interactive Brokers Singapore Pte. Ltd.